|
Hong Kong Observatory Director Lam Chiu-ying warned late last year that, by the end of this century, there may no longer be winter in this city. That time, however, may arrive as early as 12 to 22 years from now.
Lam yesterday revealed a new version of his prediction, saying the winterless days may begin as soon as 2020 or no later than 2029 if the world continues to emit more greenhouse gas into the atmosphere every year and urbanize at a fast pace. Even if the situation does not get any worse from now on, the wintry weather as we know it may be gone sometime between 2030 and 2039, when temperatures will stay above 12 Celsius throughout the year.
By then winter will no longer feel cold while summer gets hotter. Lam said Hong Kong will be about 4.8 degrees Celsius warmer toward the end of the century and the number of days when the mercury rises to 33。C or higher will increase from seven days just before the turn of the century to 15 days.
He called on local residents to help cut greenhouse gas emission as best they can, by following a simple life style and plant more trees to remedy the situation.
Describing the future Hong Kong as “long summer and no winter”, Lam expects the average number of hot nights in summer time (28。C or higher at night) to stretch 41 a year, as compared to 15 late last century, and up to 54 days in a worst scenario.
He also warned that, as this city continues to urbanize and discharge growing amounts of greenhouse gas later this century, the resulting climate change would not only lead to “long summer and no winter” but also cause extreme patterns of rain fall in 10 out of the next 100 years. By extreme he means the annual precipitation exceeding 3,343mm or less than 901mm.
As for the lengthy cold spell that Hong Kong experienced early this year, Lam explained that it was because a La Nina phenomenon building up in the second half of last year finally showed its temper. He therefore predicted that the number of typhoons to hit Hong Kong this year could reach six to eight, as compared to an average of six in the past 30 years, while the annual total rainfall should remain around the normal level. ■春生 資深翻譯員
|
