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The sun is moving into a busier period for sunspots. Forecasters expect a relatively mild outbreak by historical standards, but one major solar storm can cause havoc with satellites and electrical systems.
Like hurricanes, a weak cycle refers to the number of storms, but it only takes one powerful storm to create chaos, said scientist Doug Biesecker of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's space weather prediction center.
A report by the National Academy of Sciences found that if a storm as severe as one in 1859 occurred today, it could cause $1 trillion to $2 trillion in damage the first year and require four to 10 years for recovery.
The 1859 storm shorted out telegraph wires, causing fires in North America and Europe, sent readings of Earth's magnetic field soaring, and produced northern lights so bright that people read newspapers by their light.
Today there is a lot more than telegraph lines at stake. Vulnerable electrical grids circle the globe, satellites now vital for all forms of communications can be severely disrupted along with the global positioning system. The panel warned that a strong blast of solar wind can threaten national security, transportation, financial services and other essential functions.
The solar prediction center works closely with industry and government agencies to make sure they are prepared with changes in activity and prepared to respond when damage occurs, Biesecker explained in a briefing.
While the most extreme events seem unlikely this time, there are likely to be smaller scale disruptions to electrical service, airline flights, satellite signals and television, radio and cell phones.
An international panel headed by Biesecker said it expects the upcoming solar cycle to be the weakest since 1928. The prediction calls for the solar cycle to peak in May 2013 with 90 sunspots per day, averaged over a month. ■AP
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