■匈牙利為應付勞動力減少，宣佈多項措施催谷生育率。 資料圖片【原文】下文摘錄自香港《文匯報》2019年2月12日報道︰
中歐地區不少國家生育率（birth / fertility rate）持續下降，導致勞動力（labor force）減少，不少人因而建議輸入移民（immigrant）以保持人口增長，向來反對移民的匈牙利（Hungary）極右總理歐爾班（Viktor Orban）為了抗衡這些主張，前日在年度國情咨文中宣佈多項措施催谷生育率，包括女性生4胎以上可終身免繳薪俸稅（income tax）、3名孩子以上家庭購買七人車可以獲巨額補貼，當局亦會向40歲以下新婚夫婦提供接近28萬港元的低息貸款（low-interest loan），只要生夠3胎更可全數免還。歐爾班揚言這是匈牙利人對於維持民族存續的答案，「絕不靠移民」。
匈牙利人均生育率只有1.45，即每名女性一生中只會生育1.45名小孩，遠低於歐盟（EU）平均值的1.58，加上每年均有大批匈牙利人移居西歐地區工作，令匈牙利人口每年減少3.2萬人。人口減少導致勞動力下降，為了增加企業人手，匈牙利國會（parliament）去年12月通過一項被稱為「奴隸法」（slave law）的法例，容許企業要求員工每年超時工作最多400小時，引起全國大規模示威（protest / demonstration），歐爾班這次新措施便被視為對示威的回應。
根據計劃，所有生育4名或以上子女的女性，可終身豁免繳付薪俸稅；未滿40歲的女性首次結婚後，可申領最多1,000萬福林（forint）（約27.9萬港元）低息貸款，當夫婦生下兩胎後，當局將免除其中1/3貸款，當生夠3胎更可完全不用償還；當局亦會擴大對兩胎以上家庭的房屋津貼（housing allowance），3名子女以上家庭亦可獲250萬福林（約6.94萬港元）的七人車買車津貼。
歐爾班表示，整個歐洲新出生的小孩都愈來愈少，西歐靠輸入移民應對這問題，而且希望移民愈多愈好，「我們匈牙利人的想法不一樣，我們不單純看數字，我們需要的是純正匈牙利人子女，輸入移民就意味我們投降（surrender）。」
歐爾班稱，期望透過新政策，讓匈牙利無需依賴移民刺激人口增長，形容措施關乎匈牙利民族存亡（survival）。歐爾班亦呼籲國民在5月的歐洲議會（European Parliament）選舉踴躍投票，拒絕歐洲繼續輸入移民，捍衛歐洲民族、家庭和宗教，阻擋原有基督教國家中基督徒（Christian）淪為少數（minority）的洪流。
歐爾班亦推出多項措施刺激經濟，包括在未來3年，開設2.1萬個護理職位，並計劃投放25億美元（約196億港元）改善醫療。不過當局沒有說明新措施需要多少成本，歐爾班的幕僚長（chief of staff）日前曾表示，有關開支將由財政儲備（fiscal reserve）或本年度財政盈餘（fiscal surplus）撥出。
匈牙利央行（Hungary Central Bank）估計，當地今年經濟增長率只有3.5%，較去年的4.7%明顯放緩。歐爾班宣讀國情咨文期間，約2,000人在總理府外示威，要求歐爾班改善施政，並批評當局向反對派（opposition）罰款，企圖阻撓反對派參與歐洲議會選舉。
Hungary's Pursuit of Baby Boom with Economic Incentive rather than Immigration
【譯文】In response to the falling birth rates in many countries in Central Europe and the decline in labor force as a result, some people suggested importing immigrants to maintain population growth.
Yet, the right-wing Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orban opposed immigration and announced a number of measures in his state of the nation address recently to boost the number of babies being born.
The government's plan included exempting women with four children or more from paying income taxes for life, granting huge subsidies for the purchase of new 7-seat cars for families with at least three children, and providing young couples under 40 with low-interest loans equivalent to HK$280,000 and the loans would not have to be paid back after giving birth to three children. Orban emphasized that it was the way of defending Hungary's future without depending on immigration.
The fertility rate of Hungary is 1.45, i.e. the average number of children a Hungarian woman will have in her lifetime is only 1.45, which is much lower than the EU （European Union） average of 1.58. In addition, a significant amount of Hungarians have moved to western Europe in the past decades, leading to a decline of population by 32,000 per year and consequently a decrease in labor force.
In order to increase manpower to cater for companies' operations, the Hungarian parliament had passed the so-called "slave law" in December last year, allowing employers to require workers to work overtime up to a maximum of 400 hours annually, which had resulted in large-scale protests nationwide. The newly proposed measures of Orban's administration were considered as a response to the demonstrations.
According to the plan, Hungarian women with four children or more would be exempted for life from the payment of personal income taxes; women under 40 would be offered low-interest loans of 10 million forints （approximately HK$279,000） after their first marriage, to be exempted from paying back one-third of the loans once the couples gave birth to two children, and entirely cancelled for three children; the government would also increase the housing allowance for families with two children or above and would give 2.5 million forints （approximately HK$69,400） as non-refundable grants for the purchase of new 7-seat cars for families with at least three children.
Orban said the birth rate in Europe was falling and the West relied heavily on immigration to deal with the issue and they wanted as many immigrants as possible. "We Hungarians have a different way of thinking", he said. "Instead of just numbers, we want Hungarian children. Migration for us is surrender."
Orban hoped that through the new policies, the country would not have to rely on immigrants to stimulate population growth and stressed that the initiative was meant to ensure the survival of the Hungarian nation. He also called for voting in the European Parliament election in May in hope of rejecting the continuous importation of immigrants, defending the European nations, families and religions, and preventing Christians in traditional European countries from becoming the minority.
The Prime Minister also introduced a number of measures to boost the economy, including creating 21,000 nursery places over the next 3 years, and spending an extra US$2.5 billion （approximately HK$19.6 billion） to improve the country's healthcare system. Yet, the government did not disclose the estimated costs of the new measures but Orban's chief of staff said the government might set aside budgets from the fiscal reserves or the fiscal surplus this year to support the relevant expenditures.
Hungary Central Bank estimated that the local economic growth rate this year would be 3.5% only, which was significantly slower than the previous 4.7% last year. When Orban was delivering his state of the nation address, around 2,000 people gathered in front of the Prime Minister's office against his policies and urged him to improve governance, as well as criticized the authority for fining the opposition in an attempt to ban their participation in the European Parliament elections.■龐嘉儀
Q&A
1. 除匈牙利外，還有哪些歐盟成員國的出生率偏低？
2. 哪個歐盟成員國的出生率最高？
3. 亞洲哪些國家或地區的出生率處於偏低水平？
4. 亞洲哪個國家首次出現人口負增長（即死亡率高於出生率）？
Answer
1.葡萄牙、西班牙、意大利等 2. 法國 3. 韓國、日本、新加坡、香港 4. 日本
