【原文】美國聯儲局當地時間9月26日宣佈將聯邦基金利率目標區間上調0.25厘之後，香港金管局於9月27日宣佈跟隨美國加息步伐，隨後多家銀行相繼跟隨加息，加幅介乎八分之一到四分之一厘，為12年來首次，向市場明確發出加息周期來臨的訊號。
雖然本港主要銀行加息0.125厘，幅度較預期小，但預料這僅僅是加息周期的開始，在今年餘下時間和明年都很大機會持續加息。本次加息周期恰逢本港樓價處於歷史高位、新興市場資金流走、中美爆發貿易戰等一系列風險因素，企業和市民都必須做好風險管理，不可掉以輕心。政府更應為加息周期的各種衝擊準備充足預案，必要時給企業提供適當支援。
本次是美聯儲今年以來第三次加息，亦是市場預期之內，聯邦基金利率目標區間上調到2%至2.25%的水平。自2015年美國啟動加息進程之後已經加息8次，並開啟縮減資產負債表計劃，以逐步退出2008年金融危機後出台的超寬鬆貨幣政策。美聯儲更在會後聲明中刪除了「貨幣政策立場仍然寬鬆」的表述，預計未來將繼續漸進加息。多數美聯儲官員預計今年年底還會加息一次，正如財政司司長陳茂波所言，「相信香港超低息環境會過去，未來加息機會高。」
今次是香港12年來首次調升最優惠利率，但事實上美國「收水」的影響早在市場反映。今年年初，香港銀行同業拆息已經對美國加息作出反應，並逐步傳遞至存款利率、貸款利率領域。
香港一個月拆息已由2017年約0.4%的低位升至近日約2.2%，大部分銀行也早已上調了定期存款利率和按揭利率。無疑，本港經濟基調穩健，利率正常化有利於經濟持續健康發展，也可以令樓市更健康。但無可否認，加息會加重供樓人士負擔，對股市、樓市等構成壓力。
按照大部分銀行0.125厘的加幅，假設供樓還款期為30年，每100萬元貸款額的每月供款將增加65元，短期的影響不大。但若逐步加幅達1厘，令實際按息升至3.35厘，每月供款將增加533元，幅度達13.75%，全期利息開支則大幅增加約49%。本港樓價正處於歷史高峰，近年開售的新樓盤，多數以高成數按揭吸引上車一族，這些樓市新丁都需要在上車三幾年後開始還高息，供樓一族必須小心計數、衡量風險。
尤其值得警惕的是，本次加息周期同時疊加眾多不確定因素，不可掉以輕心。美國加息、縮表在今年已經明顯吸引資金回流，新興市場首當其衝。阿根廷、土耳其、巴西等國家的貨幣今年動輒錄得幾成的跌幅。本港銀行體系結餘由3月時約1,800億元，跌至現時約760億元。一旦新興市場經濟波動導致資金加速流走，港息將面臨追加風險。
其次，中美貿易戰升級，關稅勢必轉嫁給美國消費者，一旦美國通脹急升，美聯儲可能會加快加息步伐。
再次，貿易戰對香港實體經濟的影響，預料今年年底逐漸浮現，企業同時面對經營逆境和融資成本上升，倘出口和轉口貿易下跌令經濟增速急速下滑，帶來的衝擊可以很大。
因此，0.125厘的加息雖然沒有很大的即時衝擊，但本港企業和市民都必須為眼下的加息周期做足準備，政府部門更要未雨綢繆，為應對經濟變數擬定萬全之策。 （標題為編輯所加） （摘錄自香港文匯報社評28-9-2018）
Commercial banks in Hong Kong raised their interest rates by 0.125 percentage points
【譯文】The Hong Kong Monetary Authority(HKMA) has raised its base rates in lockstep with the US Federal Reserve(the Fed) on September 27, one day after the Fed's announcement to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points(bps). Commercial banks in Hong Kong followed the interest rate hike soon after, and have raised their interest rates for the first time in 12 years, with the increase in rates ranging from 12.5bps to 25bps, signalling the arrival of a rate-hike cycle. Although the big players in Hong Kong only raised their interest rates by 0.125 percentage points, which was smaller than expected, it is widely believed to be only the beginning of another interest rate hike cycle. The rate-hikes are very likely to continue throughout the remainder of this year and into next year. As the current rate-hike cycle coincides with a series of risk factors such as historical high home prices in Hong Kong, capital outflow in emerging markets, and an ongoing trade war between the United States and China, enterprises and the public must reflect on our position seriously and ensure proper risk management. The government should also be prepared for the impact brought by this rate-hike cycle, and provide the necessary help to businesses in times of need.
In line with market expectations, the Fed lifted the target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point to 2 percent to 2.25 percent. This was the Fed's third move in 2018, and the eighth since it began its rate hikes in 2015. Along with the interest rate hikes, the Fed also rolled out the balance sheet reduction program in 2015 in an attempt to steer away from its super-easy monetary policy, which had been in place since the financial crisis in 2008. Moreover, the Fed has also removed a sentence from its post-meeting statement that had stated that "monetary policy remains accommodative.", further sparking speculation regarding further rate-hikes in the future. As the majority of Fed officials expect another rate hike at the end of the year, borrowing what the Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po has said, "Hong Kong's long-maintained super low interest rate environment may soon end, and more rate-hikes are likely to come.".
Although banks in Hong Kong had not lifted their prime lending rates for 12 years up until now, the impact of America's tightening monetary policy has surfaced in the market for quite some time already. For instance, the Hong Kong interbank offered rate(HIBOR) has reacted to US rate-hikes as soon as in early 2018, before rippling to local deposit rates and loan rates. One-month HIBOR has also gone up from 0.4 per cent in 2017 to the recent 2.2 per cent. In addition, most banks have long raised their time deposit rates as well as mortgage rates. Undoubtedly, Hong Kong's economic fundamentals are resilient. The normalisation of interest rates would be conducive to a healthier property market and beneficial to the sustainable development of Hong Kong's economy. However, the rate hike would surely increase homeowners' burden, and put pressure on the stock market and the property market.
According to the 12.5bps increase by most banks, the impact on borrowers is insignificant, as they are paying an extra HK$65 a month for every HK$1 million of mortgage assuming the mortgage period is 30 years. But if the rate-hike gradually accumulates to 1 per cent where the actual mortgage rate would become 3.35 per cent, the monthly repayment would go up 13.75 per cent to HK$533, while the total interest would increase by a staggering 49 per cent. As the local property market is on a historical high, developers of many first-sale properties have offered mortgage loans with higher loan-to-value ratio to attract first-time homebuyers. These first-time homebuyers will have to repay a higher amount of interest after 3 or more years. Potential buyers must calculate the risks carefully before dipping into the market.
What warrants close attention is that there are also a number of uncertainties in the global economy which cannot be taken lightly apart from the current rate-hike cycle. As capital flows back to the US amid interest rate hikes and the Fed's balance sheet unwinding, emerging markets are the first ones to feel the pain. The Argentine peso, Turkish lira and Brazilian real have all fell to historical lows in 2018. Back in Hong Kong, the balance of the banking system has plummeted from HK$180 billion in March to the current HK$76 billion. If the volatility in emerging markets aggravates capital outflow, Hong Kong interest rates would be pressured to increase further. Besides, as the US-China trade war escalates, new tariffs are set to be shifted onto US consumers. Once inflation spirals in the US, the Fed might in turn accelerate the interest rate hikes. Furthermore, it is expected that the impact of the US-China trade war on Hong Kong's real economy would surface by the end of this year. Enterprises would be hit by an unwelcome combination of a worse market environment and a rising credit cost. Hong Kong would be severely impacted if a drop in exports and re-exports drag down the economic growth.
Therefore, even though a 12.5bps interest rate hike will not bring a significant and immediate impact, enterprises and the public must be fully prepared for the coming rates hikes. The authorities must also plan ahead and formulate a comprehensive strategic in order to deal with the oncoming challenges.■Jeffrey Tse (ywc_jeffrey@hotmail.com)
Exercise
1. 美國聯邦儲備局
2. 新興市場
3. 香港金融管理局
4. 量化寬鬆
5. 量化緊縮
Answer
1. the Federal Reserve System/Federal Reserve/the Fed
2. emerging markets
3. Hong Kong Monetary Authority/HKMA
4. quantitative easing/QE
5. quantitative tightening/QT