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■在內地通脹壓力加大影響下，本港的雞蛋等日用生活品價格持續上漲。 資料圖片
國家統計局公布的數據顯示，10月份內地居民消費價格超預期飆升至4.4%，錄得25個月新高。其中食品價格更是大漲10.1%，物價上漲的幅度和速度史上罕見。內地這一輪通脹急升，重要原因之一是貨幣發行過量，令流動性過剩。通脹飆升特別是食品價格大幅漲價，不僅令民生百上加斤，而且會催化資產泡沫，衝擊經濟社會發展，已不單純是經濟問題，還是嚴重的社會問題。內地首要之務是大力收緊流動性，並有必要出重招，大幅加息壓抑通脹。同時打擊囤積糧農副食品炒作，增大對農業生產投入，多管齊下平抑物價。
通脹飆升令內地負利率情況更明顯，驅使更多資金流到資產市場，加大了資產泡沫風險。通脹飆升不斷吞噬貨幣的購買力，蠶食生活質量，加劇社會矛盾。所以，內地應將壓抑通脹作為重中之重，把收緊流動性作為要務。另外，內地通脹壓力加大，本港亦難獨善其身。由於本港主要的貨品均由內地進口，內地通脹升溫連帶輸港產品價格亦會隨之上漲，另一方面港元又跟隨美元貶值，兩面夾擊下將令本港通脹壓力不斷加大。近期輸港的罐頭、食米及雞蛋等已累積漲價一至兩成，基層市民在這一輪加風下首當其衝，當局必須及早籌謀，保障基層市民的生計。
Strong Policies must be in place to Curb Surging Inflation
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the consumer price index(CPI) for October was 4.4%, a figure which far exceeded expectations and was a record high for the past 25 months. In particular, the price of food had seen a rise of as much as 10.1%. Such range and rate of price increase had been rare in the past. One of the main reasons for the current round of surging inflation on the Mainland is the oversupply of money, which in turn leads to surplus liquidity. The current surge of inflation, especially the substantial rise of food prices, not only makes life much harder for the average people, but also accelerates the asset bubble, hampering economic and social development. Now, it is not just an economic issue, but also a serious social problem. The first and the most important task for the Mainland is to substantially reduce liquidity, and it is necessary for the Mainland to curb the surging inflation by adopting strong measures such as extensively raising the interest rate. At the same time, the Mainland should also crack down on speculative stockpiling of staple and non-staple food, as well as expand investment in agricultural production. These will help to bring down prices in a multi-dimensional manner.
As a result of the surging inflation, negative interest rate is made more apparent on the Mainland. This causes more funds to flow into the asset market and increases the risk of an asset bubble. The high inflation rate relentlessly eats into the purchasing power of money, gradually lowers the standard of living and aggravates conflicts in society. Therefore, the Mainland should take curbing inflation as the foremost important task of all and make liquidity reduction the prime objective. On the other hand, the mounting pressure of inflation on the Mainland will undoubtedly put pressure on Hong Kong. Since Hong Kong imports most of its goods from mainland China, rising inflation on the Mainland will push up the prices of goods exported to Hong Kong. Coupled with the devaluation of the Hong Kong dollar which is pegged to the US dollar, Hong Kong will be faced with an increasing pressure caused by inflation. Recently, the prices of canned food, rice and eggs imported from the Mainland have already risen in aggregate by 10% to 20%. The grassroots will have to bear the brunt in this round of soaring prices; thus it is important that the local authorities plan proactively to protect the livelihood of the average people.
■translation by 開明 chi.ming818@gmail.com
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