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■日本仙台外海發生歷來最強的9級地震並引發海嘯，大量房屋被沖走毀壞，日後重建是一個大考驗。 資料圖片
日本仙台外海發生歷來最強的9級地震並引發海嘯，大量房屋被沖走毀壞。地震雖然短期內會對日本和亞太地區金融市場及經濟造成震盪，但實際影響有限，倒是對日本的政局可能會產生意想不到的正面效應。
此次仙台9級大地震超過上世紀20年代的7.9級關東大地震，是日本史上最嚴重的地震。受大地震影響，包括香港在內的亞太股市全面下跌，但此次震央並非日本經濟中心，造成的損害和損失還不至於過分嚴重。國際評級機構穆迪指出，發達經濟體往往能比欠發達經濟體更容易消化災害性事件的影響，因地震而調低對日本主權評級的可能性不大。
目前，菅直人政府民望低迷，醜聞纏身，面臨下台危機，若能積極搶險救災、妥善開展重建，起到凝聚人心的效果，可能逃過下台一劫，避免政權頻繁更迭，對日本民眾未嘗不是一件好事。同時，日本長期因為內需不振，經濟復興乏力，地震後百廢待興，可以刺激內需，令經濟逐漸有起色。
日本有高度危機意識和多方面的防震措施，所以即使全球6級以上的地震，20%都發生在人口密度全球之最的日本，但除了1995年的阪神大地震之外，日本其餘的地震人員傷亡低得驚人，死亡人數不超過兩位數。日本統籌救災效率迅速，重視提升全民防災意識和全社會抗震防災能力，城市一般住房的設計抗震等級高達12級，地震預警機制世界一流，值得各國學習。
Aftermath of Japan earthquake is a cause for concern
The worst-ever earthquake struck Japan from the sea outside Sendai. The earthquake, which registered 9 on the Richter scale, had also triggered a tsunami that washed away and destroyed a large number of houses in the area. In the short run, the quake will send shock waves across the financial markets and economies in Japan and the Asia Pacific region, but the actual effects will probably not be huge. Looking on the bright side, there may be unexpected positive effects on the political scene of Japan.
This magnitude-9 earthquake in Sendai, which dwarfed the magnitude-7.9 Great Kanto earthquake in the 1920s, has become the most serious in the history of Japan. Under the impact of the earthquake, all stock markets in the Asia Pacific region including the one in Hong Kong suffered a plunge. Nevertheless, as the epicenter of the earthquake was not in the economic hub of Japan, the damages and losses caused were not exceedingly serious. According to international rating agency Moody's, developed economies can usually absorb the impacts of catastrophic incidents more readily than the less developed ones, and so the chance of the sovereign rating of Japan being lowered because of the earthquake is very slim.
At present, the Naoto Kan government, plagued by poor poll results and scandal, is at the risk of stepping down. If the government can engage vigorous relief efforts, get on with reconstruction properly, and create solidarity among the people, they may possibly escape the fate of having to step down. If so, the cycle of frequent changes of government will come to a halt; which can be a good thing for the Japanese people. Moreover, Japan has been haunted for a long time by a faltering economy due to its weak domestic demands. After the earthquake, a lot of rehabilitation work has to be done; this will stimulate domestic demands and jumpstart a gradual recovery of the economy.
Japanese people have a high sense of crisis awareness and the country has in place a multitude of measures to guard against earthquake. Although 20% of the earthquakes in the world with a magnitude higher than 6 took place in Japan, a country which has the highest population density, the casualties caused by earthquakes in the country were strikingly low. With the exception of the Osaka and Kobe earthquake in 1995, the death tolls in all other earthquakes in the nation were within double digits. In addition to having a high efficiency in organizing relief operations, Japan also puts a lot of effort in raising disaster precaution awareness among its people and in enhancing earthquake-resistant and disaster-proof capabilities across the nation. On average, houses in the cities are designed with an earthquake resistance of up to level 12. It also has a first-class earthquake warning system. In this respect, Japan serves a good example for other countries to learn from. ■Translation by 開明 chi.ming818@gmail.com
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