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■今年的國慶黃金周，內地訪港旅客近100萬人次，當中便以自由行旅客佔大多數。 資料圖片
港大8日公布第四季宏觀經濟預測，預期全年實質本地生產總值（GDP）增長為3.4%，只為年初預測範圍3.5%至4.1%的下限。其中，實質GDP增長主要由本地需求支持，貢獻達3.8個百分點，外需則拖累0.4個百分點。事實上，內地經濟穩步發展，為本港經濟帶來良好機遇和強勁內需，支撐本港實體經濟。目前外圍環境仍存在不明朗因素，本港需加強與內地經貿聯繫，發揮自由行效用，確保實體經濟增長。政府亦應密切留意美國退市走勢，未雨綢繆，減低外圍與日俱增的經濟風險。
自由行措施推行至今已達10年，成功為本港注入強勁消費動力，抵抗多次經濟低潮。國慶黃金周長假期日前結束，內地訪港旅客近100萬人次，當中便以自由行旅客佔大多數。訪港自由行客量大增，有利釋放購買力，商戶普遍錄得生意增長，高價鐘錶及智能產品銷情尤佳，消費氣氛明顯改善。
港大報告提到，內地經濟持續增長支持本港經濟穩步復甦。當前內地經濟穩中向好。特區政府應加強與內地省市的協作，積極部署各項產業上的配合，把握內地經濟發展的機遇，香港各行各業、各階層市民都會受惠。
Continuous growth on the mainland supports economy of Hong Kong
According to the 2013 Q4 Hong Kong Macroeconomic Forecast released by the University of Hong Kong on 8 October, the real local GDP for the year 2013 is expected to increase by 3.4%, which is near the lower bound of the 3.5% to 4.1% growth forecast set out at the beginning of the year. The growth of real GDP is driven primarily by domestic demand which accounted for a 3.8 percentage point of the overall increase. External demand, nevertheless, contributed a negative 0.4%. The steady economic growth on the mainland has in fact brought good opportunities and strong internal demands to the economy of Hong Kong, providing support to the real economy here. There are still uncertainties at present in the external environment. It is necessary for Hong Kong to strengthen its economic and trade ties with the mainland and take advantage of the individual visit scheme so as to ensure real economic growth. The government should also watch out for the development of US's exit from quantitative easing and take precautions to offset the ever-increasing economic risk in the external sector.
Having been introduced for 10 years, the individual visit scheme has successfully injected strong consumer spending into Hong Kong and helped Hong Kong to survive several cycles of economic downturn. The long golden week holiday of the National Day has just ended and the number of mainland visitors reached nearly 1 million, with the majority being individual visitors. The great increase in the number of individual visitors had brought released purchasing power to Hong Kong. Retailers in general recorded a growth of business and the sales of high end timepieces and smart IT products were particularly remarkable. Obviously, consumer sentiment had shown a marked improvement.
As pointed out by the HKU report, continuous economic growth on the mainland has supported the steady recovery of the economy of Hong Kong. Currently, the mainland economy displays a promising trend of steady growth. The HKSAR government should strengthen the collaboration with mainland provinces and municipalities, and actively make plans for future cooperation in various sectors. If Hong Kong can take advantage of the opportunity provided by the economic development on the mainland, industries and all walks of life in Hong Kong will be benefited.
（節自香港《文匯報》2013年10月9日）
■English translation by Tung-ming
[tungming23@gmail.com]
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