■在2030年，韓國女性的平均壽命將首次突破90歲。 資料圖片【原文】下文摘錄自香港《文匯報》2017年2月7日報道：
多國科學家組成的團隊在英國醫學期刊《刺針》（Lancet）表示，分析35個發達及新興（emerging）國家數據後，預料2030年出生的人口中，大部分人的壽命（life expectancy）較現時顯著（significantly/ obviously）增加，當中韓國女性更會突破90歲。
團隊用21個研究預期壽命的模型，在扣除自然災害（natural disaster）、疾病（disease）及氣候變化（climate change）等較難預測的（unpredictable）因素後，發現大部分國家的居民預期壽命明顯增加，以韓國、部分西歐及新興國家表現最為明顯。
癡肥吸煙減 韓女突破90歲
研究指到了2030年，韓國女性預期壽命接近91歲，壽命增幅是有記錄以來最多，法國（France）、日本（Japan）、西班牙（Spain）及瑞士（Switzerland）女性預計亦可活到88歲。韓國男性則為84.1歲；澳洲（Australia）、瑞士、加拿大（Canada）及荷蘭（Netherlands）則接近84歲。這些國家都有高質素的醫療體系（healthcare system），有助防治癌症、心臟病，以及降低嬰兒夭折率（infant mortality rate）。
報告主要作者、英國倫敦帝國學院（Imperial College London）的一位教授認為，韓國一枝獨秀主要源於經濟及教育不斷完善，死於傳染病（infectious disease）的成人及兒童不斷減少，加上癡肥（obesity）問題逐步改善，降低了國民患糖尿病（diabetes）、心臟病及癌症等長期疾病（chronic disease）的風險。韓國婦女吸煙比率（generally smoke less）較西方國家低，亦有助長壽。
她表示，今次研究推翻20世紀初有關人類壽命的假設（assumption），即使在本世紀初，很少人相信預期壽命會超過90歲。
不過她同時指出，隨着老年人口（elderly population）急增，可能迫使一些國家延遲（postpone）退休年齡（retirement age），當局須強化醫療及社會保障（social security）體系，同時設立其他護理模式，例如以新科技支援家庭護理。
美國「三高」 人壽僅微升
大部分發達國家的人口預期壽命飆升，但不包括美國在內。在2010年，美國女性及男性預期壽命分別為81.2歲及76.5歲，不過研究發現，到2030年，數字分別只微增至83.3歲及79.5歲，與墨西哥（Mexico）、捷克（Czech）及克羅地亞（Croatia）等發展中國家的水平相若。
《刺針》指出，在研究的35個國家中，美國的嬰兒夭折率、產婦死亡率及癡肥率都是最高。美國是唯一欠缺全民醫療保障（universal healthcare coverage）的發達國家，患病國民由於財政原因，無法適時獲得治療（treatment），尤其許多居於內陸（inland）地區的民眾無法享受醫療保障。
Longevity to rise drastically in most developed nations
【譯文】An international team of scientists recently published their findings in the U.K. medical journal Lancet, saying that among 35 developed or emerging nations studied, the longevity of most people born in 2030 will significantly rise.
The study utilized 21 different models of life expectancy to make predictions. After excluding some unpredictable factors such as natural disasters, disease outbreaks or climate changes, it was found that most regions, in particular the Republic of Korea, certain western European countries and emerging economies, would see obvious increases in average life expectancy.
Korean women exceeding 90 by 2030
The Republic of Korea is expected to have the greatest increase in projected life expectancy with women born in 2030 averaging 91 years. Women in France, Japan, Spain and Switzerland are expected to live to 88 years. Korean men is predicted to live to 84.1 years, and those in Australia, Switzerland, Canada and the Netherlands will enjoy a similar life span of 84 years. The trend might be attributed to the high-quality healthcare systems that prevent and treat cancer and heart disease efficiently, and lower the infant mortality rate.
The author of the report, a professor at Imperial College London, said that Korea's excellent performance is due to the continuous improvements in its economy and education.
Deaths among children and adults caused by infectious diseases have dropped, and obesity has been gradually eased to significantly reduce the risk of having chronic diseases such as diabetes, heart problems and cancer.
Besides, Korean women generally smoke less than their counterparts in most western countries, contributing to a higher average life span.
The author said that the study might overthrow the assumption about human life span developed since the early 20th century-and believed in the 21st century-that life expectancy could not surpass 90 years.
Despite the new discovery, she pointed out that a rapid growth of elderly population might force certain countries to postpone the statutory retirement age. She advised the governments to strengthen the medical and social security systems and establish alternative models of care, such as technology-assisted home care.
The U.S. only see mild growth
The U.S. is a loner among the developed countries studied. The numbers were at 81.2 for women and 76.5 for men in 2010, and would only slightly climb to 83.3 and 79.5 respectively, similar to those of the developing countries such as Mexico, Czech and Croatia.
The Lancet wrote that the U.S. have the highest death rates of infants and natal women and of obesity among the 35 countries studied. It is the only industrialized country that lacks universal healthcare coverage. Less wealthy people are less likely to receive timely treatment and inland residents do not have equal access to healthcare.■龐嘉儀
Q&A
1. 根據調查顯示，現時哪個地方的平均壽命全球最長？
2. 承上題，這個地方的男女平均壽命分別為多少？
3. 據統計，香港人的平均壽命較30年前大約增加了多少？
4. 香港正探討以什麼社保制度為退休人士提供經濟保障？
5. 哪個亞洲國家及地區同樣以長壽著稱？
1. 香港
2. 男性81歲，女性87歲
3. 8年
4. 全民退休保障計劃（universal retirement protection scheme）
5. 日本