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■金管局本月再推措施，減低住宅按揭成數，以求降低銀行風險。 資料圖片
樓市高溫不退，泡沫漸趨惡化，金管局再推措施，減低住宅按揭成數，以求降低銀行風險。樓市風險正在上升，金管局收緊按揭的最重要目的，是要加強銀行風險管理，防範一旦市況逆轉時，對金融體系和置業者造成強烈衝擊，以有效保障樓市和整體經濟的穩健。銀行必須嚴格遵守住宅按揭成數上限的新指引，同時加強按揭申請人的信貸壓力測試，確保按揭申請人具備足夠的財政能力應對風險。
本港樓價已經超越97年的高位，但同時近4個月成交量不斷減少，價升量跌的「乾升」情況持續。隨著樓價高企，樓價升幅越來越與市民收入脫節，更值得注意的是，目前超低和不正常的利息環境不可能長期維持下去，市場估計，美國將最快於今年中停止量化寬鬆政策，加息可能於短期內發生。屆時，在息口上升、資金抽走的作用下，很可能重現樓價大幅下滑、供樓支出卻明顯增加的情況，大批置業者淪為負資產，甚至被迫斷供，造成大量銀行呆壞賬。
本港經濟深受外圍因素影響，目前歐洲及內地已進入加息周期，美國會否重啟加息亦備受關注，這對本港樓市走勢影響茲事體大，金管局再推出收緊物業按揭措施，要求銀行及時調整信貸結構和撥備，增強防控樓市逆轉的風險。銀行亦要主動要求按揭申請人接受壓力測試，防範過度借貸，既保障銀行，亦保障按揭申請人。
Keep tightening mortgage to reduce risk in property market
As the property market remains overheated and the economic bubble is brewing, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has rolled out more measures such as lowering the mortgage ratio of residential properties so as to reduce the risk borne by the banking sector. With an increasing risk in the property market, the prime objective of tightening mortgage of residential properties is to strengthen the risk management of the banks lest the financial sector and homebuyers will have to bear the brunt when there is a sharp change in the course of the market. The measure is to ensure the stability of the property market and the economy as a whole. Banks must strictly abide by the new directives of mortgage ratio cap and perform more stringent stress test on the credit of mortgage applicants to ensure that these applicants have the financial strength to manage risks.
Today, property prices in Hong Kong have surpassed the highest record of 1997 but the volume of transactions has been shrinking continuously in the past four months. The phenomenon of “unsupported price rise” has been displayed as the increase in prices is accompanied by falling transactions. Property prices stand high and the rate of price rise has made it even more difficult for the income of the ordinary people to catch up. More importantly, it is impossible that the exceptionally low and abnormal interest rate at the present time can be sustained in the long term. The market predicts that USA will put an end to its quantitative easing policy as early as in the middle of this year and an upward adjustment of interest rate will take place shortly. By then, under the combined forces of rate hike and liquidity withdrawal, it is highly possible that there will be once again a dramatic slump in property prices and a significantly higher expenditure on mortgage repayment. At that time, a large number of homebuyers will turn into owners of negative assets and many of them may be forced into payment default, resulting in a great deal of bad or doubtful debts in the accounts of banks.
The economy of Hong Kong hinges very much upon external factors. At present, Europe and mainland China have entered a cycle of rate hikes while the possibility of USA reverting to raising interest rate will be another major concern. These factors have a strong effect on the development trend of the local property market. The HKMA has now introduced tighter measures on mortgages and requested banks to timely adjust their credit structure and provision in order to guard against the risk of a sharp turn in the property market. Likewise, the banking sector should actively ask mortgage applicants to undertake stress tests to prevent over-borrowing. This protects both the banks and the mortgage applicants. ■Translation by 開明 chi.ming818@gmail.com
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