葉劉淑儀 新民黨主席
近日全球股市偏軟,主要是受希債危機所累。歐元區財長會議表示,希臘政府如果要得到援助,必先採取緊縮政策,縮減開支;希臘國民當然反對。僵局至截稿時仍未解決。
全球經濟持續疲弱
6月中的《經濟學人》(The Economist)文章「Sticky patch or meltdown?」也討論最近全球經濟的疲弱表現:
Summer is at hand(快將到來) in the world's big financial centres, but the mood is hardly bright. Stock prices have been sliding(下滑) for weeks in response to gloomy(黯淡) economic news. Factory output has slowed across the globe. Consumers have become more cautious. In America virtually every statistic(因為強調的是每一項個別數字,所以用單數statistic), from house prices to job growth, has weakened. There was some respite(暫緩) earlier this week, but only because a few figures... were not as dire(嚴峻) as feared.... Is today's softness(疲軟) just a sticky patch, or is the global recovery beginning to melt away?
在世界各大金融中心,夏天將至,但氣氛並不明朗。股價因黯淡的經濟消息而連續數周下挫。全球工廠產量放緩。消費者越趨謹慎。在美國,由房價至就業增長數據,幾乎每一個統計數字都變弱了。雖然這星期初情況得以暫緩,但是只因為有幾個數字未如所恐怕般嚴峻。現在市場疲軟,究竟是一時的困難,還是意味著全球復甦的進程開始瓦解?
Sticky patch 字面義是「黏糊糊的一塊」,生動地比喻困難的處境;而meltdown(熔毀)明顯更糟糕。幸好,作者認為增長停滯應該是暫時性的:
料停滯屬暫時性質
The reasons for the lull(停滯) suggest it should be temporary. First, the tsunami in Japan sent its GDP tumbling(暴跌) and disrupted supply chains, and thus industrial output, around the world. ...But just as that slump(下跌) shows up in the economic statistics, more forward-looking evidence points to a rebound(反彈).
Second, demand was dented(dent即「使…下陷」) by a sudden surge (上升) in oil price earlier this year....Costlier fuel has knocked consumer confidence, particularly in gas-guzzling(耗油) America. ...Nonetheless, ...the pressure is waning(wane原指月缺,反義詞即月盈—wax,wane可引申指退潮、衰減等).
Third, many emerging economies have tightened monetary policy in response to high inflation.
觀乎經濟增長停滯的原因,問題應該是暫時性的。第一,日本海嘯令其國內生產總值暴跌,也擾亂了全球的供應鏈以及工業出產。不過,經濟數字出現下跌的同時,有更多前瞻性的證據表明經濟會反彈。
第二,今年初油價突然上升,令需求受挫。更昂貴的燃油打擊了消費者的信心,尤其在耗油的美國。不過,這種壓力正在減退。
第三,許多新興經濟體已加緊貨幣政策以應付通脹。
不過,作者不忘提醒,錯誤的政治決定可使經濟惡化。若歐洲各國和希臘各不相讓,全球經濟將大受打擊。
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