■英國脫歐後，不僅本地政治經濟動盪，更引發全球骨牌效應。圖為反對英國脫歐的倫敦市遊行者。 資料圖片■Jeffrey Tse [ywc_jeffrey@hotmail.com]
原文
英國脫歐公投（referendum）結束，脫歐派出人意料以近4個百分點勝出。消息傳出後，包括港股在內的全球金融市場激烈震盪。這次的長遠影響尚未浮現，可能觸發波及全球的政經連鎖反應（chain-reaction）。
香港需要吸取英國脫歐公投的教訓，警惕激進勢力（radicals）炒作議題，凡事政治化（politicize），分化社會。
致環球股市波動 多國或仿效
公投揭曉之際，即時引發全球金融市場混亂（chaos），英鎊匯價及環球股市應聲急挫，德英法三大股市指數均下跌近一成，日股跌近 8%，港股（Hang Seng Index）一度急挫1,200點。英國、日本、瑞士多國央行立即啟動危機處理模式，宣佈必要時採取措拖，防止流動性崩潰（liquidity crisis）。韓國、印度、丹麥和新加坡等國更盛傳或已出手干預匯市，務求穩定市場。
英國脫歐，意味其放棄歐盟擁有5億人口的大市場，英國經濟短期內受到衝擊在所難免。有輿論認為，災難（nightmare）才剛剛開始。
首先，英國脫歐公投結果一出，首相卡梅倫（David Cameron）就發表辭職（resignation）的聲明，英國政治不明朗因素驟增。雖然英國過半民眾支持脫歐，但作為聯合王國（kingdom）組成部分的蘇格蘭和北愛爾蘭大多數選民卻支持留歐，脫歐可能引發蘇格蘭、北愛爾蘭公投「脫英」。
一旦蘇格蘭、北愛爾蘭退出英國，「日不落帝國」的英國勢必淪為蕞爾小國。更令人擔憂的是，英國脫歐的骨牌效應（domino effect）可能在歐洲遍地開花，荷蘭、瑞典、捷克等國家的民眾可能要求仿效英國，結果難以預測。
英女議員遭襲亡
英國及歐盟的政局動向不明，勢必令環球金融市場的不明朗因素（volatility）大增。國際大鱷索羅斯（George Soros）已高調揚言，英鎊匯價會因而急瀉兩成，英國家庭每年收入將減少3,000英鎊至5,000英鎊，短期勢必引發環球金融市場動盪。
歐洲經濟本身已疲不能興，復甦艱難，如今英國脫歐對英國和歐盟是兩敗俱傷（devastating blow）。
脫歐公投對英國造成的衝擊絕非一次性（one-off），當中出現泛政治化問題，撕裂社會，例如有支持留歐（pro-Remain）的女議員遭一名極端的脫歐者襲擊致死。
當前香港的社會對立情況，與英國何其相似。當造成社會對抗，其他發展將停滯不前（halt progression），香港社會不可能有健康的發展空間。香港何去何從，港人必須作出理智抉擇。
（摘錄自文匯報社評25-6-2016）
（標題及小標題為編輯所加）
Learning Point
自英國脫歐公投結果公佈後，英國政壇可說是一片混亂。公投後兩邊陣營三位重要領袖先後公佈不會帶領英國走向脫歐，英國的前途充滿未知數。
．英國首相卡梅倫 David Cameron
出身顯赫的卡梅倫於2010年帶領保守黨勝出後成為英國自1812年以來最年輕的首相，2015年大選成功連任卻為英國脫歐埋下伏筆。
在這次大選當中，卡梅倫為爭取選票而承諾勝出後會於2017年前舉行脫歐公投，間接導致今日英國脫歐成功。作為留歐領袖，卡梅倫決定承擔公投失敗的責任，宣佈將於10月辭職。
．前倫敦市長約翰遜 Boris Johnson
與首相卡梅倫同為保守黨成員，曾任倫敦市長長達8年。凌亂的髮型加上言詞富爭議性，身為倫敦市長卻每日踩單車上班，令約翰遜的非主流形象十分鮮明。2016年3月，他宣佈支持英國退出歐盟，成為脫歐陣營的領導人物。
然而當公投結束後，理應為成功而感到興奮的約翰遜竟然宣佈不會競逐黨魁之位，意味着這位脫歐領導人物不願成為首相，帶領英國走脫歐後的道路，不禁令人聯想他支持脫歐純粹只為個人仕途。
．英國獨立黨黨魁法拉奇 Nigel Farage
獨立黨黨魁法拉奇是脫歐陣營的靈魂人物，雖然自1999年以來都是歐洲議會成員，卻一直主張英國脫離歐盟。他形象鮮明，言論惹火，議會生涯一心推動英國脫歐，聲言脫歐是為了從歐盟手上奪回控制權，公投拉票期間一直重點宣傳歐洲移民政策對英國的害處。
當脫歐派於公投勝出，一圓政治生涯心願的法拉奇卻突然宣佈辭去獨立黨黨魁一職。他與約翰遜的舉動，令外界質疑脫歐派領袖根本從來沒有想過，英國成功脫歐後的路應該如何。
譯文
Leave surprisingly won by a 4% margin as Britain's EU referendum drew close. The local financial market, along with the world markets, was in a complete shock after the results came out. While its long-term consequences are yet to surface, Brexit might very much set off a political and economic chain-reaction on a global scale.
Hong Kong must learn the lesson from Britain's EU referendum by being alert of radicals who attempt to politicize local issues and divide the society.
Global economy shaken
World markets were in chaos immediately after results of the referendum were out. British pound sterling slumped against the dollar while the UK's FTSE 100, German DAX and French CAC 40 fell for nearly 10%. Meanwhile in Asia, the Japanese NIKKEI 225 also plunged 8% whereas the local Hang Seng Index fell over 1,200 points at one stage. Central banks of UK, Japan and Switzerland have pledged to take measures to counter a possible liquidity crisis, while rumors are swirling that South Korea, India, Denmark and Singapore are planning to bring in stimulus packages to counter potential market volatility.
By voting to leave, the UK has virtually given up EU's 500 million strong consumer market. While short-term impacts on UK's economy are widely expected, some believe this is only the beginning of the nightmare.
First, the political future of the UK is now clouded by uncertainty as PM David Cameron announced his resignation shortly after the Brexit vote. Meanwhile, despite the fact that the Leave campaign won more than half of the votes, the majority in both Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain, which might trigger new referendums in the two constituent units of the UK to break away from the kingdom.
If Scotland and North Ireland do break away, the sun will definitely be setting on what is already the remnant of the British Empire. The second horror that lies ahead is a Brexit domino effect, where EU members like the Netherlands, Sweden and the Czech Republic might seek to follow suit.
British MP murdered by extremist
Uncertainty in the political future of the UK and the EU is set to spur global market volatility. Hedge fund legend George Soros had claimed before the vote that "the pound would fall by... possibly more than 20%", and there will be "an income loss of ￡3,000 to ￡5,000 annually per household", therefore "immediate financial consequences" would hit markets around the world. While the weak economies within the EU still have a long way to recovery, Brexit is certainly a devastating blow to both the UK and the EU.
The EU referendum's impact on Britain would not be one-off. Its social implications has been in the form of a divided society and sharp political polarization; a pro-Remain female MP（member of parliament）has already been murdered by a Leave extremist.
In this sense, Hong Kong is now in a situation very similar to the UK. As a divided society would only halt progression, the people of Hong Kong should think twice lest Hong Kong's promising future should hang in the balance.
