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■港府須謹防QE3對香港樓市和民生帶來衝擊。圖為香港交易所。資料圖片
Guard against the impact of QE3 on local property market and livelihood
美國聯邦儲備局推出第三輪量化寬鬆政策（QE3），每月採購400億美元的抵押貸款支援證券，現有扭曲操作等維持不變。QE3能否提振美國經濟有待觀察，不過對於全球經濟特別是外向型經濟的香港來說，須謹防QE3對香港樓市和民生帶來的衝擊。
美聯儲通過前兩輪量化寬鬆已經購買了2.3萬億的美元資產，大部分流向美國股票，包括國債、新興市場和大宗商品市場，造成全球熱錢泛濫，催生資產泡沫風險。香港因前兩輪QE亦出現樓市持續上升趨勢。金管局月中推出多項收緊按揭措施，可視為QE3的「對沖」，主要防止熱錢催生樓市泡沫影響銀行體系穩定。新措施力度不大，相信是顧及經濟、銀行業務及現時持有物業的業主，故未敢「落重藥」。
美聯儲實際上已經成為全球的央行，其通過投放貨幣的乘數效應，有可能使釋放的貨幣造成3倍以上或者更高倍數的貨幣流動性的釋放，對全球通貨膨脹是很大的威脅。美國流動性通脹加速美元貶值，港幣與美元掛鈎也必然加速港幣貶值，令通脹威脅民生。對此當局應密切觀察，必要時推出幫助市民對抗通脹的措施。
The U.S. Federal Reserve has launched the third round of quantitative easing (QE3) and this time they would purchase every month US$40 billion worth of mortgage-backed securities while keeping the current Operation Twist unchanged. Whether QE3 can boost the US economy remains to be seen; however, the global economy, especially an open economy like Hong Kong, has to be vigilant and guard against any impact QE3 may have on the local property market and people's livelihood.
The Federal Reserve had already bought US$2.3 trillion worth of US dollar assets in the first and second rounds of quantitative easing. Most of the money went to the U.S. stock market, including those of national debt, emerging markets and bulk commodity market, generating a flood of hot money around the world that created a risk of asset bubbles. The property market in Hong Kong also experienced persistent price hikes due to the first two rounds of QE. In the middle of this month, the Monetary Authority of Hong Kong put into force a number of measures to tighten the grip on mortgage transactions. These measures, which can be seen as "hedging" against QE3, aim mainly to prevent the risk of a property bubble that is likely to be created by the flood of hot money and may undermine the stability of the banking system. Strength of the new measures is not great and it is believed that the authority refrained from introducing "harsh measures" because it had to take into consideration the economy, the banking sector and the existing property owners.
The U.S. Federal Reserve has in effect become the central bank of the world and the multiplier effect of the money it injects may create a flow of liquidity three or more times of the fund injected. This means a great threat to the world in terms of global inflation. The liquidity expansion in the United States will accelerate the depreciation of the US dollar, which will inevitably speed up the depreciation of the Hong Kong dollar as the two currencies are pegged together. The resultant inflation will jeopardize the livelihood of people in Hong Kong. Therefore, the authorities should watch closely and introduce measures when necessary to help people fight against the pressure of inflation.
■Translation by Tung-ming (tungming23@gmail.com)
逢周五見報
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